I told you guys to hold off last week in locking in with someone, and I hope you didn’t lock into PFS’s +$60 for an order of 3 coins. I have a buyer who will pay you $175 per coin if you decide to lock in now, thus netting you a profit of about +$205 PER ORDER of 3 coins.
But let’s talk about the MINT market real quick and the last great release, the Flowing Hair silver medal. First off, there will be no lottery variant with this one. I’m surprised the MINT isn’t doing one after the success of the flowing hair lottery. Anyway, the flowing hair raw coin is going for about $250 on Ebay these days. And this is with a mintage of around 50K coins (the upcoming coin will have a 100K mintage.) Now mind you, the coin didn’t sell out the first 24 hours (maybe due to the 1 limit.) It only sold out after the household limit was lifted the next day. The market on the day of the drop was about $115 and then it slowly went up to $125 then $175, then $195, then $225, etc. I think the reason for the rise in price was a) dealers were surprised about the demand on the coin and/or b) dealers oversold graded preorders and needed to fill inventory c) the MINT was supposed to have minted 75K of the coins but it turns out they only minted ~50K or so.
Since the upcoming coin is a preorder (July 30 shipment,) does that mean the MINT will have time to mint all 100K mintage? Sounds like it, right? So if they do mint 100K of these coins, it would be shocking if this coin holds the current $200 price point when you compare it to the 50K mintage flowing hair coin, assuming demand/popularity is the same for both. Not to mention, there’s going to be 3 more of these coming out for the other branches of the military.
Personally, I think the dealers saw how great the flowing hair was and now they’re overreacting to this one. If this coin sits all day, I could see it immediately tanking to $150-175 on Ebay. However, if it sells out in say an hour, then FOMO will kick in and we see the price jump back up to $250 but then by the time it ships on July 29, reality kicks in and it dips back below $200.
Am I going to lock in or hold? Even my Viet gambling blood doesn’t like this gamble and I do plan on locking in now.
If you also want to lock in for $175/coin, use this form -> https://forms.gle/qy1yi3dGdXsxiPET8 The form will close when the quota has been met. If you are going to buy the coin and ‘wait and see’, feel free to email me down the road to see what my buyers will pay then.
Where’s Pinehurst in all this? They don’t even like it enough to make a play pre-drop…
Let’s not forget what happened last time
Disclaimer – if the coin sells out in 30 minutes and the market hits $400, ignore this entire post.
Household order limit has dropped to 1
Locked in. Thanks for the heads up.