UPDATE – After this post, Taylor added a dozen more shows. Nearly every city has 2-3 shows. Resell will be impossible unless you’re within spitting distance. Great for fans though.
Before I got to writing this post, I looked back at my old Taylor Swift concert posts. I wrote that I would pass on Lover Fest, but that turned out to be a bad call. I think it did well because I underestimated how many fans would travel to see her. She can easily sell out 2 shows in LA just for the LA folks, but by the time you added people from SF, Seattle, or any other west coast city, then yeah, demand was way higher than supply. Same goes for Boston (NY folks would easily travel.)
I then went back to Reputation and I lost money on that show. That was due to a) an arguably weak album and b) dynamic pricing kicked in. The lesson I learned for that concert is if you want to go, wait last minute.
I write this post while trying to decide which city would be best to resell for her new Eras tour. Demand is off the charts! The new Midnights album owned the top 10 songs in the top 100 chart. People haven’t seen her tour in 5 years – she’s had 4 new albums since Reputation, so lots of songs to choose from. I’m not even sure how she’s going to decide which songs to sing. As a fan, I can’t wait to see the show.
As a reseller though, it’s a bit tougher. So let’s brainstorm this together. I was going to do Seattle, but then she added a 2nd show so I won’t do that anymore. We can cross out the 2 and 3 city stops like Foxborough, NJ, SF and LA. I’m kind of surprised she’s doing 2 shows in Nashville to be honest. Yes, I get it’s her hometown, but the population of Nashville is 700K while 1 show Houston has a population of 2.3M. Out of all the 1 stop cities, Houston is the biggest. It wouldn’t surprise me if she adds a 2nd Houston show.
I find it interesting that she’s doing Cincinnati, which no one really goes there. Maybe because they don’t have an arena there, so artists like Garth will do the stadium or if they’re not big enough, just skip the city and do Columbus or Cleveland intead since they have arenas. So they may be itching to attend ANYTHING that comes into town. I’d avoid Detroit, Pittsburgh and Kansas City just because they have a lower average income over cities like Denver, Las Vegas and even Glendale. I’m kind of shocked she’s doing 3 shows in Philadelphia but only 1 in Pittsburgh; that says a lot about Pittsburgh.
If you do get picked for one of her shows, I think you treat the tickets like hot potatoes. The venues are too massive and the prices won’t hold. Sell the tickets ASAP when people get FOMO cuz they hit a terrible queue. If you do buy, I think the safe bet is going for the cheap tickets ($49); don’t think you can go wrong with these tickets, but my guess is you’ll probably be $80 after all fees. Then you’d have to sell these for $100+ just to break even. Definitely possible to make money there, but like I said, DON’T HOLD THESE TICKETS. Even BTS prices slowly declined just due to the sheer number of tickets available. Another safe play would be buying PIT tickets or tickets within spitting distance. I think these will be $449, but most of her fans have grown up and now have adult money. I mean, BTS fans were paying nearly $10K to be within spitting distance. I don’t see Taytay fans paying that much, but I could see them easily going for $2-$5K if you were right next to the stage. I recall seeing Lover Fest PIT tickets being around $2K.
If you’re a fan that wants to go though, the best option is to just wait for the day of to buy tickets. For Reputation, she held back some face value seats until a few days ahead and I’m sure she’ll do the same again. That or you can buy some cheap tickets when resellers need to dump their inventory.
Lol thanks for nothing. I had the opportunity to buy Arizona tickets even though Seattle was what I wanted. You were 100% incorrect in your predictions and I should have bought the Arizona tickets. The fact that tickets are selling for tens of thousands of dollars and I could have purchased for $850 max. Hope this isn’t your day job. You suck.
Sooo is swift putting any restrictions on reselling? I just bought Paramore and idk if I can resell them. Any help understanding would be greatly appreciated 🙂
I think LA will be a tough resell as there are so many extra days now.
I think people in LA who are huge fans might not want to wait until August. So Vegas is a good option. They will for sure travel.
I only applied for the “lottery” on two of my TM accounts and got approved for pre-sale on both. Had grand visions of huge profits if I got approved. Now I’m wondering if even getting 4-6 $449 tickets and instantly listing them at a break even price after fees (to meet minimum spending requirements on some new cards) would be feasible or have some risk.
Why not two night shows in big population centers like NY or LA?
I think passing on Lover was the right call…