The Morgans we had pre-ordered back in May and August have begun to ship. At the time, I told you guys to hold and not lock in with anyone because my buyers would have a solid offer once they start to ship. Sadly, we gambled and lost on this one. The coin market back in May and through the summer was HOT. However, it seems in the past month, demand and prices have nosedived. So let’s look at the recent 21XJ set for instance.
Ebay sales on 9/13 (this is the day my coin buyers locked in at $400 by the way)
When coins got in people’s hands on 9/27:
And here we currently are on 10/19:
If you look at the 21EMN coins, here’s auction sales (great indicator) back on 9/18:
Here’s 21EMN as of 10/19. You can see that it’s down about $20-$30 per coin (close to a 20% decline)
Learnings
From the screenshots above, you can see that a) the coin market has dropped about 20% in a month and b) buyers who paid you guys $400 for 21XJ lost quite a bit of money. Let’s talk about why it’s down 20% in a month and what could be the causes: First, the MINT has shipped out A LOT of coins this year. We went from 3-4 buying opportunities in a fulll year to close to ten this year alone. That’s a lot of supply in the market. People have limited disposable income to collect all these coins. If a coin collector wants to buy all 6 Morgan/Peace coins, that’s going to cost them nearly a thousand dollars. That’s assuming they didn’t buy all the other coins already. Second, crypto has made a run over the past month as well. Me personally, I’d rather invest in crypto than these MINT coins. Once again, there’s only so much disposable income to go around for people. So on the end consumer side, demand is softening.
Now let’s talk about the dealer side. I think they’ve learned not to chase Ebay prices anymore, especially preorders. They were paying out $400 for 21XJ which was at the top of the market. If they waited a month, they could get the coin for half of that (see Pinehurst current buy price of $200.) Now of course they’re going to grade the coins and sell them at a premium so don’t feel TOO bad for them. However, if you are a coin dealer, just looking at the 2 examples above, why pay the Ebay preorder premium when you can wait when coins are in hand and get them for much cheaper, so my dealers have told me they won’t be chasing Ebay prices anymore. Which means don’t expect future coin opportunites to be as profitable as they have been this year.
What about those Morgan and Peace coins we bought
I would suggest you guys sell to Pinehurst (they are paying $110 per coin as of this post) or Ebay these coins. If you don’t want to do either of those, my buyer will buy the coins at cost. The reason why his offer is lower than Pinehurst is because he thinks the coins will go below $100 once these coins are in hand and so he doesn’t want to overpay like the previous coins. Just look at what PH is paying for the 21EMN coins now.
11/1/21 Update – My buyer will pay out $92 per coin plus provide insured label
11/3/21 1PM PT Update – My buyer wants to clarify that he needs complete sets, so NEW label requests starting now will need at least 3 coins for each of the 6 different types of coins. Previous label requests will be honored and paid out on a per coin basis.
11/8/21 11PM PT Update – Label requests will close on Thursday 11/11 at 11:59 PM PT
Shipping label request form once coins IN HAND
DO NOT OPEN THE BROWN BOX when it arrives. It should come in a plain brown box from UPS or USPS with from label MEMPHIS, TN. If you bought multiple coins, you can combine them all into a bigger box (DO NOT OPEN THE BROWN BOX).
Label requests will open once the first shipped coins are in hand, so come back and request the labels then.
10/21 UPDATE – there is going to be an open window of about 1-2 weeks when my buyer will accept the coins (starts when the first coins are delivered and I’ll update it here.) You will also need to ship the coins out promptly as well (within days of receiving the label.) So if you are traveling or won’t be able to ship the coins in a timely manner, I’d either cancel your orders or make other arrangements to sell the coins. Worst case, you return the coins back to the MINT.
Shipping label request form available here
These labels are created in a batch once a day. These usually go out in the afternoon PST on business days, so if you missed the cutoff, you’ll get it the next business day.
Coin dropoffs
You can then drop off the coins. MAKE SURE YOU GET A DROPOFF RECEIPT THAT SHOWS WEIGHT. DO NOT HAND IT TO A RANDOM DRIVER! Keep this receipt until you get paid.
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Payment
When the coins get delivered, an electronic check will be emailed to you within 3-4 business days. Please check your spam folder, especially if you have Hotmail/Outlook.
Vinh, i sold 20cc and 20 Morgan 0 on eBay but 5 or 6 orders got canceled is ur buyer buying singles or only sets of 10? Thanks!
Let’s say a minimum of 6 coins. Doesn’t make any sense for him to pay to ship a single coin.
Before you posted shipping label form, I opened one of the outer brown boxes, is that fine? All other boxes are fully intact.
When I dropped off the package, the manager insisted on asking what’s inside. Do I have to answer?
I don’t know what the rule is on whether you have to say what it is. I’d say, “It’s not a dangerous good, liquid or lithium battery” if that’s what you’re insinuating. Maybe try a different FEDEX; I know some people have gotten this question, but 95% of people don’t, so YMMV.
I’ve been told to say auto parts if asked when shipping coins or precious metals.
Many people have coins in hand.
Waiting for the label request link.
When do you expect to be able to post it?
Thanks
Thanks; I just put up the form.
Ginh Any thoughts on sending the coins off to get graded?
Anyone else getting charged for only 1/2 of your order?
My 8/10 order still has a status of “BACKORDER”, yet I see that I have already been charged for the Morgan SDs (but not for the Peace SDs).
The Morgan SDs already shipped on Fri 10/22.
Calling the Mint now to see what’s up with the PEACE SDs.
Same thing just happened with my order. Please update with what the Mint told you.
After speaking with U.S. Mint Customer Service (Sat 10/23), the rep said that the THREE (3) PEACE SDs remain on BACKORDER with no clear timeline for when they will be available for shipping.
However, that same evening, status changed from “BACKORDER” to “PROCESSING”.
I’ve already received the Morgan SDs.
I’ve been charged for the Morgan Peace SDs, but no ship date has been set yet for those.
As a side note – my 8/10 coins are also still “PROCESSING” and I haven’t been charged for those yet.
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Just found out all of my 8/4 coins shipped today.
Now just waiting on the 8/10 PEACE SDs.
Thanks JL for the update. For me:
10/25 – email from Mint with tracking for Morgan SDs
10/27 – email from Mint that they’re still working on Morgan/Peace orders until 11/1
10/28 – received Morgan SDs
10/28 – email from Mint with tracking for Peace SDs (label created, not yet with USPS)
Was waiting till I got some confirmation about the Peace SDs to lock in with Pinehurst at $110/coin but looks like they already dropped it to $100/coin. 🙁
Hi KDB – I don’t see a “reply” button to your latest message from 10/28, so I’m replying here:
Uggh, sorry to hear PH’s price went even lower!
I received ALL coins as of Friday 10/29 – hopefully you get your PEACEs soon.
I get that you were “waiting till you got confirmation before locking in”.
In this case, I felt that having a confirmed order was enough to lock in whenever I wished.
How the U.S. Mint schedules shipping is beyond my control, so I just kept PH updated along the way (PH is very responsive with email communications).
Worst case: Coins arrive beyond PH’s 21-Day Window, making P.O. invalid at the price I locked them in at. One way to have guarded against this may have been to keep an eye on the lock-in price and generate a “fresh PO” to reset the 21-Day Window before the lock-in price went any lower (although this is also uncertain with respect to US Mint processing time).
All in all – there was great variability in processing and shipping times for different people, and the lock-in price kept declining over time. This was a rough one but good to learn from.
Oops – quick follow up to my last comment:
Creating a fresh P.O. to reset the 21-Day window (for PH’s timing) would be awful if the previous P.O. still exists. That would mean being on the hook for even more coins.
I think just keeping PH or any Buyer updated along the way has been the best way to handle it.
Thanks Vinh for the very informative write up!
I agree with the other poster Steve – as long as we come out ahead, it’s a win. The reality is no one can predict the coin market. It’s another reminder that when choosing to participate and buying the coins, we need to do our best to stay informed. Whether you locked in a price earlier (for a potentially higher price) or now, profit is profit. Always do your own homework.
For those of you selling to Pinehurst for the first time, I can anecdotally say, they have always treated me well. And their new system to create POs is very simple. Just follow the instructions.
Again thank you to Vinh!
Thanks for the updates.
This is disappointing, but as long as we walk away even or ahead, it’s a win. Looking at Pinehurst, it’s unclear if you should fill out the purchase order form before the coins are in hand or not. Mine, for example, are still backordered or in process. Can anyone with experience say what you do?
Steve – I’m new to Pinehurst as well. I locked in with them yesterday since I watched the price drop from $130/coin to $110/coin (for the 8/4 and 8/10 coins) on Tuesday, and I didn’t want to risk it dropping down even further.
I created an account and submitted a Purchase Order. The confirmation email I received included this verbage:
“Pinehurst Coins reserves the right to cancel a purchase order if it is not received within 21 days of the creation date.”
While my 8/4 coins are “Processing”, my 8/10 coins are still on “BACKORDER” (fortunately, I chose 2-day shipping for the 8/10 coins based on Vinh’s other post re: USPS being slow). So my hope is that I’ll meet the 21-day window.
One more note – Pinehurst offers the option to produce a shipping label (insured).
If you take that option, $60 is deducted from your payment.
I’ve read there are cheaper alternatives – maybe Vinh or someone can chime in.
The last time I sold to PH was many years ago; I think I took the risk of just buying USPS shipping w/o insurance, but you do you.
Thanks, JL.
YW Steve!
Just sell on eBay still going for like 250 a piece ull probably get scammed on a few but still should come out making more money
…and this ^^^^ is what we call paper hands!
Glad I locked in my Morgans at $150 each with a buyer who is going to follow-through!
Of course, my buyer will probably reap incredible profits when he gets them graded at 70 level and sells them for much more that $150.
The CC’s themselves will easily get $250+ each!
Yes, I agree…invest in Crypto! I did…way back when it was far below what it is going for now…Time to realize some profits!
Diamond Hands for the win!!!
Thanks for the update and transparency, Vinh. Went ahead with Pinehurst and glad to be in the green. Hopefully the next one goes to the moon…
I didn’t participate in these coin deals, but just want to say I appreciate the transparency.
Just confirming this will apply to 8/10 orders also?
Yes any of the 6 Morgan/Peace coins
So really long story short when your get the coins in your hand, your buyer is providing opportunity to, at least, offload them at cost. Allowing people who hate reselling to wash their hands.
While the overall news is disappointing. This is totally fair in my book.
Right. Or sell to Pinehurst for a profit.
Wondering if I should just cancel as mine are still in backorder
That’s up to you.
feeling deflated hearing this news