I had never bought NFL tickets before, but about 3-4 weeks ago, the LA Rams had put some tickets for their home divisional game up to the public; I saw some cheap seats at around $125 or so. I had them in my cart but was gun shy. Fast forward 3 weeks and the Cowboys beat the Seahawks to make it to Los Angeles. Apparently the Cowboys fan base is huge because when that happened, the lowest prices on Stubhub were around $250. Immediately I regretted not buying those tickets.
Fast forward to this past Monday where the Chiefs put out tickets to their AFC Championship game against the Patriots. The cheapest seats were around $300; I was a bit gunshy to pull the trigger due to the price (looking back, they were about a 2-2.5 on the risk/reward scale), but I just saw similar tickets go for $450 on Stubhub, so went ahead and pulled the trigger. The pair cost $637 all in. I immediately then relisted them back on Ticketmaster. Then a couple of days later the weather forecast showed it was going to be HORRIBLE in Kansas City. Prices started to tank. And they continued to tank even through Saturday. I lowered my prices by $50 on Wednesday and lowered them $25 each day until they eventually sold on Friday for a takehome price of $450. Yup, I lost $187 on the pair (-29% ROI.)
Lesson Learned – just because you see a sale on Stubhub doesn’t mean you’ll get the same price. The early bird already got the worm. Secondly, trust your gut. Unlike Jeff Tweedy where it was low cost and high upside, this flip was high cost and low upside. Plus, in the Rams scenario, the opponent wasn’t yet known and the team hadn’t marked the price up. I think the Chiefs already marked the price up to where they thought the market price was. What’s that saying – buy on the rumor, sell on the news?